Educational comparison calculator only — not financial, investment or tax advice. This calculator provides illustrative mathematical outputs based only on the assumptions entered. It does not recommend any financial product, asset class or course of action, and does not consider your objectives, financial situation, needs, risk profile or full tax position. Any gain order shown is a calculated scenario comparison only — a higher calculated gain does not mean an option is suitable, appropriate, safer, better or recommended for you. Before making financial, investment or tax decisions, consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser, registered tax agent or other appropriately qualified professional.
User Manual
Version 2.7 · Illustrative Risk View · Simplified 2027 CGT Indexation · Four Asset Classes

Australian Investment & ETF Return Calculator

Gold spot price (AUD/oz): $6,144 AUD/oz Price date: —

Advanced access lockedRegular contributions, Saved scenarios, Break-even & What-If, CSV and PDF are available with Advanced.
Shared Assumptions
Principal (AUD)$100,000
Inflation rate (CPI)3.00%
Used for the simplified 2027-rules mode, which assumes the entire gain accrues after 1 July 2027. RBA target band: 2–3%.
Marginal tax rate30.00%
Holding years25 yrs

Regular contributions Advanced

Off. When enabled, the same contribution is added to all four options at the end of each selected period.
🔒 Advanced feature
Model monthly or yearly regular contributions across all four options.
Offset Account
Offset Interest Rate (Mortgage rate)6.50%
Saving compounds annually - reinvested into offset balance
Risk score: 0/10 → multiplier 1.00
ETF (Stocks) Portfolio
ETF (Stocks) capital gain return (nominal)8.00%
Total return incl. dividends: 10.8%
Dividend Yield (ASX 200)3.8%
3.80%
Dividend yield 3.8% - after-tax 2.56% - reinvested and compounded (simplified: compounds on initial principal)
Capital Gains Tax (on price gain only)eff. 16.3%
50% discount (current law) - eff. tax 16.3%
Risk score - ETF (Stocks)4/10
Risk multiplier: (10 - 4) / 10 = 0.60. Applied to final dollar return.
Physical Gold
Gold spot price (AUD/oz)
Update with the gold spot price. Check current spot price (AUD/oz) →
It affects ounces purchased and projected future price per ounce. It does not by itself change the comparison ranking because returns are percentage-based.
Gold price used for ounces$6,144
Buys 8.14 oz
Physical Gold growth rate (nominal)8.00%
Yr 5 projected: --
Physical Gold Capital Gains Taxeff. 16.3%
50% discount (current law) - eff. tax 16.3%
Risk score - Physical Gold5/10
Risk multiplier: (10 - 5) / 10 = 0.50. Applied to final dollar return.
Term Deposit
Term Deposit Rate5.00% p.a.
5.00%
Illustrative baseline term deposit rate selection.
Risk score: 1/10 → multiplier 0.90
Interest taxed at marginal rate3.38%
After-tax 3.50% at 30.0% marginal - compounds annually
Showing after-tax (nominal) results. Turn on to apply the simplified risk haircut.

Risk scores (adjustable)

These scores drive the risk haircut: a higher score reduces that option's illustrative risk-view gain, using multiplier = (10 − score) / 10. Why these defaults? They rank options by rough volatility and capital-loss risk — an offset account (0) is effectively risk-free, a term deposit (1) is near-risk-free, broad ETFs (4) carry market risk, and physical gold (5) is the most volatile single asset here. They are illustrative starting points, not formal measures — adjust them to reflect your own view of risk.
×1.00
×0.90
×0.60
×0.50

Saved scenarios Advanced

Scenarios are stored only in this browser. Clearing browser data removes them.
🔒 Advanced feature
Save, load and manage up to 10 scenarios on this browser.
Highest calculated gain under your assumptions: Offset Account
Highest after-tax (nominal) gain under these assumptions
$--
Calculated gain order only — not a recommendation
1st --
2nd --
3rd --
4th --
Important: the main numbers shown are calculated gains, not total final balances. Estimated final value/economic value = original principal + after-tax gain. For Offset Account, the gain is mortgage interest saved, so the economic value means cash retained plus interest avoided.
Offset Account - After-Tax (Nominal) Gain
$--
 
Tax-free gain from mortgage interest avoided
 
Estimated economic value: $--
Total contributed: $--
ETF (Stocks) - After-Tax (Nominal) Gain
$--
 
After-tax (nominal) gain shown above
Estimated final value: $--
Total contributed: $--
Physical Gold - After-Tax (Nominal) Gain
$--
 
After-tax (nominal) gain shown above
Estimated final value: $--
Total contributed: $--
Term Deposit - After-Tax (Nominal) Gain
$--
 
After-tax (nominal) gain shown above
Estimated final balance: $--
Total contributed: $--
Cumulative after-tax (nominal) gains year-by-year
YearTotal contributedOffsetETF (Stocks)GoldTDHighest
After-tax (nominal) gain (shown above)—$--$--$--$--—
Illustrative risk-view reference—$--$--$--$--
Final-year after-tax (nominal) comparison under current inputs
Ranking reflects the assumptions entered and the tool's simplified methodology.
Signature Feature
Break-even & What-If Analyser Advanced
What would need to change for an option to rank first?
Find the return, rate or timeframe needed to overtake the current top-ranked option.
Select an option and an assumption. The analyser estimates the input required for that option to show the highest calculated gain and lets you explore how one change affects the result. It does not indicate that any option is suitable or recommended.
🔒 Break-even & What-If is an Advanced feature
Unlock the exact return, rate or holding-period thresholds that would make a selected option rank first under the model.

Calculating…

The break-even and What-If result appears here once the calculator loads.
Version 2.7 Methodology - Results are shown as calculated gains, not total final balances; estimated final value/economic value is the original principal plus the after-tax gain, and for Offset Account the gain represents mortgage interest saved. Results can be viewed as after-tax (nominal) gains or an illustrative risk view. Risk model is OFF by default. When switched ON, the illustrative risk view applies the fixed risk scores to positive after-tax gains. Offset Account: saving compounds annually, tax-free. ETF (Stocks): capital gain with CGT only on positive gains, plus dividends reinvested after tax. Physical Gold: growth rate applied to spot price holding, CGT only on positive gains. Term Deposit: default 5.00%; interest taxed annually at marginal rate and compounded. CGT modes: No discount (full marginal rate — represents an under-12-month sale or a conservative no-discount assumption; the app does not check eligibility); 50% discount (current law: applied only to each parcel held at least 12 months; shorter-held parcels are taxed at the full selected marginal rate); 2027 rules — entire gain assumed after 1 July 2027 (simplified indexation model: the cost base is indexed by the chosen CPI, then the remaining real gain is taxed at the higher of 30% or marginal rate; transitional rules are not modelled). The risk model is a simplified, illustrative risk haircut applied to positive gains only (losses are shown in full); it is not a formal volatility model or a measure of actual risk, and the risk scores are illustrative assumptions. Illustrative risk-view scores: Offset Account 0/10, Term Deposit 1/10, ETF (Stocks) 4/10, Physical Gold 5/10. Formula: positive after-tax dollar return × (10 − risk score) / 10. CPI slider is used for the simplified 2027-rules indexation only. Gold price is a user-entered, once-daily gold spot price (AUD/oz) with a date stamp. Regular contributions, when enabled, are applied equally to all four options at the end of each month or year. Monthly rates are derived from the entered annual rates using the effective periodic rate. ETF and gold CGT on regular contributions is estimated parcel-by-parcel under the selected simplified CGT mode. Under the current-law 50% setting, only parcels held at least 12 months receive the discount; shorter-held parcels are taxed at the full selected marginal rate. Real-world records and eligibility may differ. Term-deposit contributions are modelled as separate deposits earning the selected equivalent rate. Simplified tax model: the ETF (Stocks) dividend component is compounded separately on each initial or regular-contribution parcel at the after-tax yield, not on a growing reinvested cost base; CGT is computed as if the asset were sold at the end of each year shown. These are deliberate simplifications for comparison purposes and do not capture every detail of individual tax circumstances. Calculations assume an individual Australian tax resident holding assets in their personal name; the model does not simulate corporate tax rates, Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSFs), or non-resident withholding tax frameworks. Educational comparison tool using simplified tax assumptions — not financial or tax advice.

Guides

Background reading on how these comparisons work.

What return do I need to beat my offset account? → Offset account vs ETF: how to compare the numbers → The 2027 CGT changes explained → How to compare asset classes in Australia → Pay off the mortgage or invest? → For mortgage brokers and financial advisers →

Common questions

General information about how this calculator models each option. Not financial, investment or tax advice.

What return does an ETF need to beat an offset account?

It depends on your mortgage rate, marginal tax rate and holding period, which is why the calculator solves for it rather than asking you to guess. The break-even is the return an ETF would have to deliver for it to match the offset after tax — a threshold you can judge, instead of a forecast you have to believe.

Is the return from an offset account taxed in Australia?

No. An offset account produces a certain, tax-free return exactly equal to your mortgage rate. You are not earning income; you are avoiding an expense, and the ATO does not tax avoided expenses on an owner-occupied loan. That is why comparing a mortgage rate against a share market return without adjusting for tax understates the offset.

How is an ETF return calculated after tax?

The calculator models capital growth and dividend yield separately. Dividends are taxed each year at your marginal rate; capital growth is not taxed until you sell, and then the capital gains tax discount applies to parcels held longer than 12 months. Everything is then adjusted for inflation so the comparison is in real terms, using 2026–27 resident tax rates.

Which is better in Australia, an offset account or ETFs?

On a 6.5% mortgage, 8% assumed ETF growth and a 30% tax rate, an ETF shows the higher calculated gain at every horizon from 5 to 25 years. The ranking flips when your mortgage rate averages above roughly 8%. The offset account wins on certainty; the ETF wins on expected return. Your own numbers decide it, which is what the calculator is for.

Do the 2027 CGT changes affect the comparison?

Yes. The calculator includes a simplified mode applying the post-1 July 2027 rules to the entire gain, alongside the current 50% discount, so you can switch between them. Under that simplified 2027 scenario the break-even mortgage rate falls to roughly 7.7%.

Feedback

Help improve the calculator by sharing what worked, what was confusing, or what you would change.

Open feedback form